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SPC May 30, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective OutlookDay 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK0749 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025Valid 301300Z - 311200Z...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONSOF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA...ANDEAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA......SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous severe storms with wind damage, large hail,and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon and eveningacross parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast....Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas and Southeast...An Enhanced Risk for damaging thunderstorm winds has been introducedwith this outlook for portions of eastern GA, much of SC andcentral/eastern NC.A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the easternCONUS today, as a vigorous embedded shortwave trough moves eastwardfrom the lower Ohio Valley towards VA/NC. In response to thisshortwave trough, a deepening surface cyclone will move eastwardfrom central KY into the Mid Atlantic by evening. A trailing coldfront will move across parts of the Southeast, Carolinas, andVirginia. Wind profiles across the warm sector of the deepeningcyclone will be seasonably strong, but instability is expected to betempered by weak midlevel lapse rates and substantial cloud cover.As large-scale ascent with the approaching shortwave trough developsacross the warm sector, thunderstorms are expected to develop alongand near the cold front and move generally east. Latest hi-resguidance suggests a predominantly linear mode across the EnhancedRisk area, where confidence regarding greater destabilization ishighest. Damaging winds are expected to be the primary severehazard, although a tornado threat will exist primarily with bowingsegments.Farther north across VA/MD/DE, confidence regarding storm mode islower, with some guidance suggesting the potential fordiscrete/semi-discrete supercells ahead of the front. These stormswould have the potential for severe wind/hail, and potentially posea tornado risk with stronger/more sustained storms. If confidenceincreases regarding the expected coverage of severe storms in thisarea, then higher severe probabilities may be warranted with the1630z Convective Outlook. Along the Gulf Coast from southeast TX into the western FLPanhandle, moderate/strong buoyancy and 25-30 kts of westerly shearwill be present. Here, scattered clusters of strong/severe stormsposing a risk for mainly damaging winds are expected to develop thisafternoon. ...Eastern WI into northern IL/IN and Lake Michigan...A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and strong northerly jet willmove southward across parts of the Great Lakes during the afternoonand evening. Modest low-level moisture will limit buoyancy, butrelatively steep midlevel lapse rates and cold temperatures aloftwill support thunderstorm development during the late afternoon andevening. Localized damaging gusts and hail could accompany thestrongest storms....Eastern NM into Far West TX...Low-level southeasterly flow will maintain modest boundary-layermoisture across parts of NM and West TX. Moderate instability and 25kt midlevel northwest flow could support a few strong storms capableof isolated hail and strong to severe gusts this afternoon andevening...Bunting/Bentley.. 05/30/2025Read more |
SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri May 30 12:54:02 UTC 2025No watches are valid as of Fri May 30 12:54:02 UTC 2025. |
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Fri May 30 12:54:02 UTC 2025No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri May 30 12:54:02 UTC 2025. |
SPC May 30, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather OutlookDay 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK0359 AM CDT Fri May 30 2025Valid 021200Z - 071200Z...DISCUSSION...As mentioned in WPCs Extended Forecast Discussion, an amplifiedsplit-flow pattern across the CONUS renders below-averagepredictability through the period. Will maintain inheritedsevere-weather areas for D4-5, with mesoscale severe potentialevident in D6 and beyond but with poor synoptic predictability....D4/Monday...A positive-tilt mid/upper trough should shift east as an embeddedshortwave impulse over the northern Rockies tracks near theinternational border over the northern Great Plains. Anortheast/southwest-oriented cold front should accelerate southwardinto the central High Plains while a weak frontal wave temporarilystalls the front over the Red River Valley of the North. There arepronounced signals for afternoon to evening convection along thefront. Initially steep mid-level lapse rates will be supportive ofscattered severe potential. But it appears that stronger mid-levelflow may lag to the cool side of the front, which may limit agreater threat....D5/Tuesday...Complex severe potential is expected across the central states.Low-amplitude shortwave impulses should be progressing across partsof the northern Upper Midwest to the central High Plains on Tuesdaymorning. Some guidance suggests extensive overnight convection maybe ongoing within a favorably diffluent upper-flow regime,characterized by a coupled southern-stream left-exit andnorthern-stream right-entrance regime. This renders substantialuncertainty on where more robust boundary-layer destabilizationshould occur. Warm mid-level temperatures in the southern streamshould yield modest mid-level lapse rates, which further lowersconfidence. Nevertheless, a broad and rich moist sector and adequatedeep-layer shear, along with widespread convection during theafternoon/evening, indicate scattered severe storms remain possible.Read more |