SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Thu May 15 11:08:09 UTC 2025No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu May 15 11:08:09 UTC 2025. |
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 250 Status ReportsWW 0250 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 250SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE SUX TO5 WSW OTG TO 25 WNW RWF.FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0784..DEAN..05/15/25ATTN...WFO...FSD...STATUS REPORT FOR WS 250 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC041-059-151140-IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARECLAY DICKINSON MNC033-063-151140-MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARECOTTONWOOD JACKSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASEREFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIALINFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONESCLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.Read more |
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 250WW 250 SEVERE TSTM IA MN NE SD 150635Z - 151400Z URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSevere Thunderstorm Watch Number 250NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK135 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Iowa Southwest Minnesota Extreme northeast Nebraska Southeast South Dakota* Effective this Thursday morning from 135 AM until 900 AM CDT.* Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possibleSUMMARY...A line of severe thunderstorms will continue movingnortheast across the watch area this morning with a risk fordamaging wind gusts and isolated large hail.The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles east northeastof Brookings SD to 30 miles east southeast of Sioux City IA. For acomplete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outlineupdate (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions arefavorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threateningweather conditions and listen for later statements and possiblewarnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do producetornadoes.&&OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 249...AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. Afew cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector24035....BuntingRead more |
SPC May 15, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather OutlookDay 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK0358 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025Valid 181200Z - 231200Z...DISCUSSION...Medium-range guidance indicates that the persistent, prominentmid/upper ridging across the mid-latitude and subtropical easternPacific will become suppressed late this coming weekend into earlynext week, before breaking down through the remainder of thisperiod. As it does, amplified downstream troughing is forecast toemerge from the Intermountain West. Sunday, this may commencegradually, with one significant lead short wave perturbationpivoting north-northeast of the southern Rockies, accompanied bycyclogenesis across eastern Colorado, as an upstream perturbationcontinues to dig toward the Four Corners region. It appears thatthis trailing perturbation will then pivot across the southernRockies through the central/southern Great Plains by late Monday,perhaps accompanied by renewed cyclogenesis across the TexasPanhandle into central Great Plains. Both days, the dryline and warm front may provide focus fororganized severe convective development, including supercells, inthe presence of strong deep-layer shear and thermodynamic profilescharacterized by steep lapse rates and sizable CAPE. It appearsthat a substantive risk for strong to severe thunderstorms willpersist into at least Tuesday, within a broadening warm sector asthe cyclone and associated mid-level troughing shift a bit morerapidly eastward across the middle Mississippi Valley.Convective potential becomes more unclear Wednesday into Thursday asthe cyclone likely weakens and synoptic developments become moreuncertain across the East.Read more |
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 249 Status ReportsWW 0249 Status Updates STATUS REPORT ON WW 249SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE OFKTO 25 SSW YKN TO 20 WSW FSD TO 30 W BKX TO 10 NNE HON...DEAN..05/15/25ATTN...WFO...OAX...LBF...GID...FSD...STATUS REPORT FOR WS 249 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC051-150840-NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED AREDIXON SDC027-150840-SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARECLAY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASEREFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIALINFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONESCLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.Read more |
SPC May 15, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm OutlookSPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK0229 AM CDT Thu May 15 2025Valid 171200Z - 181200Z...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY ACROSSPARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...EASTERN VIRGINIA...CENTRAL ANDEASTERN MARYLAND...DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...CENTRALAND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSSPARTS OF WEST CENTRAL THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...EASTERN OKLAHOMAAND SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS......SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday across parts of the MidAtlantic, and late Saturday into Saturday night across parts of thesoutheastern Great Plains....Discussion...Downstream of a persistent, prominent mid-level ridge across thesouthern mid-latitude and subtropical eastern Pacific, modelsindicate that large-scale troughing will continue to dig inland ofthe Pacific coast through this period. It appears that this willinclude one notable embedded smaller-scale perturbation diggingacross the Sierra Nevada, toward the Four Corners, and a trailingperturbation digging across the Pacific Northwest coast. Farther downstream, it appears that one or two more modest shortwave impulses, within a belt of westerlies emanating from thesubtropical eastern Pacific, may accelerate across the northernMexican Plateau through the southern Great Plains and lowerMississippi Valley, around the northwestern periphery of broadmid/upper ridging centered over the Gulf Basin. To the north ofthis ridge, large-scale ridging within the mid-latitude westerliesis forecast to overspread much of the interior U.S., with a remnantdownstream cyclone and associated troughing progressing across partsof the Northeast and Mid Atlantic.In lower levels, models generally indicate that a significant coldfront will advance southeast of the lower Great Lakes and OhioValley, while stalling across parts of the Mid South into centralGreat Plains. However, this is likely to be preceded by a weakerfront, largely driven or reinforced by outflow from Friday/Fridaynight convection....Mid Atlantic...Strong convectively augmented westerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow(in excess of 50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer) is likely to spreadeast of the Allegheny and Blue Ridge Mountains, coincident with theconvective outflow boundary by early Saturday. The extent andintensity of continuing convective development along the gust frontat the outset of the period remains unclear. However, if the severestorm cluster from Friday night does not maintain strength with acontinuing risk for severe wind gusts into and across the MidAtlantic early Saturday, it is possible that destabilization aheadof the surface boundary could become sufficient for considerablere-intensification of thunderstorm activity along it, before itadvances offshore....Southeastern Great Plains...Beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, models indicatethat seasonably moist air will maintain a reservoir of large CAPEalong and south of the initial pre-frontal wind shift/convectiveoutflow, roughly across the Ark-La-Texas, and east of a sharpeningdryline, across western North Texas toward the Del Rio TX area bylate afternoon. Aided by forcing for ascent and strengtheningwesterly mid/upper flow associated with the subtropicalperturbations, isolated to scattered supercells may initiate andpropagate off the retreating dryline by late afternoon. Otherstrong to severe thunderstorm development is possible, aided byforcing for ascent associated with warm advection, where mid-levelinhibition will be weaker along and north of the initial pre-frontalwind shift, and perhaps near the surface front across northernOklahoma into north central Arkansas...Kerr.. 05/15/2025Read more |
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