SPC MD 1057MD 1057 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA Mesoscale Discussion 1057NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK1238 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025Areas affected...Western and Central OklahomaConcerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 010538Z - 010815ZProbability of Watch Issuance...40 percentSUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue through theearly morning hours, and an increase in the threat is possible. Ifstorms continue to intensify, then a severe weather watch may beneeded.DISCUSSION...An east-to-west band of strong thunderstorms,associated with isolated severe, is ongoing across northernOklahoma. The storms are located near a front, and are beingsupported by large-scale ascent ahead of a shortwave trough movingsouthward through Kansas, evident on water vapor imagery. An axis oflow-level moisture is located from northwest Texas into westernOklahoma, where surface dewpoints are in the mid to upper 60s F.This is contributing to MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range acrossmuch of western Oklahoma. RAP forecast soundings near theinstability max have effective shear near 40 knots, with 700-500 mblapse rates near 7 C/km. This should support a threat for isolatedlarge hail within the stronger cores. A capping inversion ispresent, which will keep the storms elevated. However, an isolatedsevere gust will be possible with the strongest of cells...Broyles/Bunting.. 06/01/2025...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...AMA...LAT...LON 36349981 36809917 36859821 36669720 36069657 35239660 34639689 34319758 34409908 34839980 35490001 36349981 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPHMOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPHMOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 INRead more |
SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun Jun 1 05:41:02 UTC 2025No watches are valid as of Sun Jun 1 05:41:02 UTC 2025. |
SPC Jun 1, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective OutlookSPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK0759 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025Valid 010100Z - 011200Z...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OFSOUTHERN KS INTO OK AND EXTREME NORTH-CENTRAL TX......SUMMARY...Large hail and severe gusts remain possible tonight from southernKansas across Oklahoma to the Red River....Central/southern Plains...Storms have been slow to develop along a weak surface boundaryacross southern KS. However, storm coverage is expected to increasewith time later this evening as a vigorous mid/upper-level shortwavetrough digs south-southeastward from Nebraska. Increasing deep-layerflow/shear, cooling temperatures aloft, and moderate buoyancy willsupport scattered strong to potentially severe storms, with a threatof large hail and localized severe gusts. Elevated storms may tendto redevelop during the overnight hours, and it remains possiblethat one or more clusters will evolve and move south-southeastwardtoward the Red River before the end of the forecast period. Farther north, a few strong storms may persist through the eveningfrom southeast NE into eastern KS and western MO. Effective shear isweaker in this region compared to areas to the southwest, butrelatively cool temperatures aloft could support isolated hail withthe strongest storms. ...VA/NC...A general weakening trend is expected to continue with ongoingconvection across parts of VA/NC, with the onset of nocturnalcooling/stabilization. However, weak buoyancy and moderatedeep-layer flow could support gusty winds and small hail with thestrongest remaining convection this evening. ...South FL overnight...Most guidance suggests thunderstorm redevelopment in the vicinity ofthe southwest FL Peninsula prior to the end of the forecast period,as a low-amplitude mid/upper-level shortwave trough and relatedjetlet approach the region from the northeast Gulf. Moderatebuoyancy and modestly favorable deep-layer shear will supportpotential for a few strong storms, though any organized severethreat may not evolve until near/after 12Z...Dean.. 06/01/2025Read more |
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