What's All This?: September 2008

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SPC Jun 23, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK0359 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025Valid 261200Z - 011200Z...DISCUSSION......D4/Thursday: Parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes...An area of interest for severe-storm potential on Thursday residesfrom eastern IA/southeast MN into northern IL/southern WI. Amid/upper-level shortwave trough is generally forecast to moveacross parts of the Midwest into the Great Lakes during theafternoon, potentially accompanied by a frontal wave. Whiledeep-layer flow will generally remain rather modest, rich low-levelmoisture and strong heating will support moderate to strong buoyancyalong/south of the front. Strong to potentially severe storms maydevelop as the approaching shortwave trough impinges upon thefavorable buoyancy.  Uncertainty regarding frontal position and thesufficiency of deep-layer shear precludes higher confidence at thistime. ...D5/Friday: Northern Plains...An area of interest for Friday resides across parts of the northernGreat Plains. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to moveacross the northern Rockies toward the northern High Plains, thoughconsiderable spread remains regarding the timing of this relativelylow-amplitude shortwave and attendant cold front. The front mayimpinge upon strong instability across parts of the Dakotas, withscattered storm and eventual MCS development possible. Deep-layershear may remain relatively modest, but the magnitude of instabilitywill likely support some organized severe threat. ...D6/Saturday: Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...Some continuation of severe-storm potential is possible intoSaturday, potentially shifting eastward into the Upper Midwest.Spread in guidance becomes quite large at this range regardingplacement of the warm sector Saturday afternoon, but stronginstability and at least modest deep-layer shear could supportsevere storms along/east of the cold front.

SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Jun 23 09:02:02 UTC 2025

No watches are valid as of Mon Jun 23 09:02:02 UTC 2025.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Mon Jun 23 09:02:02 UTC 2025

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jun 23 09:02:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Jun 23, 2025 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK0242 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025Valid 251200Z - 261200Z...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A CORRIDORFROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST...ANDALSO ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST......SUMMARY...Strong to potentially severe storms are possible Wednesday in acorridor from the northern High Plains into the Midwest andNortheast, and also across parts of the Southeast....Synopsis...An upper ridge is forecast to persist across parts of the OhioValley and Southeast on Wednesday, with some gradual weakening ofthe ridge expected through the forecast period. Multiplelow-amplitude midlevel shortwave troughs will move along the westernand northern periphery of the ridge, from the central/northernPlains into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Along the southernperiphery of the ridge, a slow-moving mid/upper-level low will isforecast to approach Florida from the Bahamas. ...Parts of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest...A remnant MCS may be ongoing somewhere from the north-central Plainsinto parts of southern MN/northern IA Wednesday morning. This systemis currently expected to gradually diminish with time as thenocturnal low-level jet weakens. A localized severe could accompanythis remnant MCS through part of the morning. In the wake of this MCS, diurnal heating of a richly moistenvironment will support strong destabilization near anoutflow-reinforced front. Storm development will be possible alongthis front/outflow by late afternoon, with MLCAPE potentially inexcess of 3000 J/kg supporting vigorous updrafts. Deep-layer flowwill be relatively modest, though locally backed winds near theboundary could support initial supercell development, before stormclustering becomes more prominent with time. Damaging winds,isolated hail, and possibly a tornado could accompany the strongestafternoon/evening storms. A corridor of greater severe probabilitiesmay eventually be needed, if confidence increases regarding theevolution of morning convection and placement of remnant surfaceboundaries. Farther west, a relatively moist post-frontal regime could againsupport strong to potentially severe storms across parts of thecentral/northern High Plains. There is some potential for thisregion to be in the wake of a departing midlevel shortwave troughduring the afternoon and evening, making diurnal storm coverageuncertain. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for at least anisolated severe threat in the region during the afternoon andevening. ...Lower Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast...Scattered storm development will be possible Wednesday afternoonacross parts of the lower Great Lakes into the Mid Atlantic andNortheast, along/south of a cold front. While temperatures aloftwill be rather warm, diurnal heating will support moderate tolocally strong buoyancy. Deep-layer flow/shear is forecast to berelatively weak, but unidirectional west-northwesterly flow couldsupport outflow-dominant clusters capable of at least isolated winddamage. ...Parts of the Southeast/Carolinas...A pocket of steep midlevel lapse rates will be in place across partsof the Southeast and Carolinas on Wednesday. The favorable lapserates combined with strong diurnal heating of a very moist airmasswill result in development of strong to extreme instability byafternoon. With some further weakening of the upper ridge, stormcoverage may increase compared to previous days. 20-30 kt of northeasterly flow aloft will also develop across partsof the region, to the northwest of the offshore upper low. Thismodestly enhanced flow could support at least transient stormorganization within the very unstable environment. Damaging windsand isolated hail will be possible within this regime. Any looselyorganized clustering could result in localized corridors of moreconcentrated wind damage...Dean.. 06/23/2025

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK0111 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025Valid 241200Z - 251200Z...Synopsis...Another day of elevated fire weather conditions is expected forparts of the intermountain West on Tuesday. An upper troughcurrently settling into the southern Great Basin/lower CO RiverValley is expected to stall and slowly de-amplify over the next 48hours. This will maintain a belt of modest mid-level flow over partsof the eastern Great Basin/western Four Corners region. Althoughpressure gradient winds will generally be in the mid/upper teens,diurnal heating and deep mixing of a dry air mass will promotefrequent gusts between 20-35 mph across the region - especially fromnorthern AZ into eastern UT and southern WY under a belt of somewhatstronger 700-500 mb flow. Afternoon RH minimums in the low to midteens are expected, and coupled with dry fuels, will help supportanother day of elevated fire weather conditions (though transientperiods of critical conditions are anticipated where stronger gustscan occur)....Dry Thunderstorms...Isolated thunderstorms appear possible Tuesday afternoon acrossportions of northeastern Nevada under the upper-level low. Coldtemperatures aloft combined with modest mid-level moisture andstrong low-level heating will support thermodynamic profilesadequate for weak convection, but perhaps limited precipitation.Given dry fuels across the region, some dry-thunderstorm risk isexpected. The primary limiting factor to a more substantialdry-thunderstorm concern is slow storm motions (less than 10 knots),which should increase the probability of wetting rainfall under theconvective cores...Moore.. 06/23/2025...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK0104 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025Valid 231200Z - 241200Z...Synopsis...Elevated fire weather concerns will persist across the greatersouthern Great Basin and Four Corners region today as breezyconditions continue within a dry air mass. Low to mid-level flowover the Intermountain West is expect to weaken over the next 24hours as a leading shortwave impulse ejects northward into theCanadian Prairies. A secondary, weaker shortwave will settle intothe lower CO Valley through today, which will maintain southwesterlyflow across the southern Great Basin and into the Four Cornersregion. Diurnal heating of a very dry air mass (as sampled byregional 00z RAOBs) will promote wind gusts between 20-35 mph bylate afternoon, though ensemble guidance continues to suggest thatsustained winds will most likely remain between 15-20 mph for mostlocations. Regardless, increasing rainfall deficits and antecedentdry fuels/ongoing fires will support another day of at least low-endfire weather concerns as dry/breezy conditions become more prevalentthrough the afternoon...Moore.. 06/23/2025...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Jun 23, 2025 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK0100 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025Valid 241200Z - 251200Z...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERNWY...NORTHEAST CO...AND PARTS OF WESTERN NE/SD......SUMMARY...Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming intosouthwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeastColorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possiblefrom parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast....Synopsis...A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from theSouthwest into the northern Rockies on Tuesday. Downstream, a strongmid/upper-level trough will move across parts of Ontario and Quebec,resulting in some dampening of the persistent upper ridge over theEast. At the surface, a warm front will move northward across parts of thecentral Plains, while the eastern portion of the front will bedraped somewhere from the Midwest into the southern Great Lakesvicinity. A cold front will move southward across parts of thenorthern Great Lakes and Northeast/New England. ...WY/CO into western NE/SD...Increasing low-level moisture beneath generally steep midlevel lapserates will support moderate destabilization across parts of easternWY into northeast CO. Veering wind profiles will support organizedstorms, and isolated to widely scattered supercells may develop fromlate afternoon into the evening. Large to very large hail, localizedsevere gusts, and perhaps a tornado are all possible. Some upscalegrowth will be possible through the evening, which could spread atleast an isolated severe threat into parts of western NE/SD. Thelongevity of the severe threat into Tuesday night is uncertain, dueto increasing low-level stability. ...Lower MO River Valley into the Midwest and Great Lakes...In the wake of morning convection, strong heating/destabilizationwill support development of strong to potentially severe storms fromparts of eastern KS/southeast NE into the Midwest and Great Lakes,along the periphery of the upper ridge. Development will likely befocused near an outflow-influenced front, and potentially near anyremnant MCVs. Deep-layer shear is expected to be relatively weakalong/ahead of the front, but unidirectional southwesterly flow willsupport potential for outflow-driven clusters capable of locallydamaging wind. Corridors of greater severe threat may eventually evolve within thebroad Marginal Risk across this region, but confidence in theplacement of the front and any MCVs or other vorticity maximaprecludes higher probabilities at this time. ...Parts of the Northeast/New England...Midlevel lapse rates will be weak, but relatively strong heatingwill support moderate buoyancy by afternoon across parts of theNortheast, along and ahead of the cold front. Stronger ascent anddeep-layer flow will remain north of the front, but sufficient flowand steepening of low-level lapse rates will support a threat ofdamaging gusts with any strong storms across the region. Stormcoverage is uncertain, but greater severe probabilities mayeventually be needed if trends support more than isolated stormdevelopment during the afternoon and evening. ...Southeast into the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic...A remnant EML will gradually move southwestward along the peripheryof the upper ridge across parts of the Carolinas, Mid Atlantic, andSoutheast on Tuesday. While this will support strong buoyancy, thereis a considerable amount of spread regarding storm coverage acrossthis region Tuesday. At this time, the highest confidence in stormdevelopment is over the southern Appalachians, where deep-layershear will be negligible underneath the upper ridge. If confidencein storm coverage increases where slightly stronger flow aloft willbe present, severe probabilities may eventually be needed...Dean.. 06/23/2025

SPC Jun 23, 2025 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK1240 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025Valid 231200Z - 241200Z...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OFTHE CENTRAL PLAINS...MID MISSOURI VALLEY...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYAND GREAT LAKES......SUMMARY...Storms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be possibletoday from the southern and central Plains northeastward into theGreat Lakes....Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Upper Mississippi Valley/GreatLakes...At mid-levels, an anticyclone will remain over much of the easternU.S. today, as southwesterly flow remains over the north-centralstates. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward intothe upper Mississippi and mid Missouri Valleys extendingsouthwestward into the central Plains. Ahead of the front, surfacedewpoints in the lower 70s F will contribute to moderatedestabilization during the day. As low-level convergence increasesalong the front, somewhat widely spaced convection is expected toinitiate. From this convection, several clusters of storms areexpected to move eastward toward an axis of instability. Along andnear the instability axis from northeast Kansas into southernWisconsin, deep-layer shear is expected to be modest. However,low-level lapse rates will become steep in the afternoon, whichcould support a potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The severethreat is expected to be strongly diurnal, with the greatest threatoccurring in the late afternoon and early evening....Southern and Central High Plains...Southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place today across muchof the south-central U.S. At the surface, a cold front will advancesoutheastward across the central High Plains. Ahead of the front,surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F. As surface temperatures warmduring the day, an axis of moderate instability will develop aheadof the front from eastern New Mexico into southwest Kansas. Althoughdeep-layer shear is forecast to be relatively weak along thiscorridor, the moderate instability combined with steep low tomid-level lapse rates may be enough for a marginal wind-damagethreat....Northern Maine...At mid-levels, northwest flow will be in place today across northernNew England, where heights will rise substantially. At the surface,a moist airmass will be located across much of the Northeast, wheresurface dewpoints will be mostly from the mid 60s to the lower 70SF. As surface temperatures warm today, isolated convectioninitiation may occur along an axis of low-level convergence innorthern Maine. In addition to the instability, moderate deep-layershear will be in place. This could support a marginal wind-damagethreat during the early to mid afternoon...Broyles/Moore.. 06/23/2025

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