What's All This?: September 2008

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK0223 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025Valid 101200Z - 111200ZBroad northwest flow within a dry post-frontal air mass is stillexpected to bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions ofthe Central Plains for day 2/Thursday. Elevated highlights wereexpanded into the Nebraska Panhandle as well as portions of southernKansas and far northern Oklahoma where fuels will be more receptiveto wildfire spread after several days of warming and drying.Otherwise, previous forecast philosophy (see below) remains ontrack...Williams/Moore.. 04/09/2025.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1144 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025/...Synopsis...Mid-level troughing will amplify across the eastern CONUS as anupper ridge continues to build over the Interior West tomorrow,supporting a deep-layer northwesterly flow regime across the centralPlains, where a dry boundary layer will be in place. By afternoonpeak heating, boundary-layer mixing will foster downward momentumtransport of the stronger flow aloft to support dry and windyconditions for several hours tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon. Guidanceconsensus depicts 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface windsamid 20 percent RH across portions of central Nebraska into Kansas.Given at least modestly dry fuels in this region, Elevatedhighlights have been introduced....Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC - No watches are valid as of Wed Apr 9 19:26:01 UTC 2025

No watches are valid as of Wed Apr 9 19:26:01 UTC 2025.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Wed Apr 9 19:26:02 UTC 2025

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Apr 9 19:26:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Apr 9, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK0211 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025Valid 111200Z - 121200Z...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THEEASTERN CAROLINAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.......SUMMARY...A couple strong to severe storms will be possible from the easternCarolinas into southeast Virginia on Friday. Primary concerns willbe isolated severe hail and locally damaging wind gusts....Discussion...A strong mid-level jet streak will round the base of the trough onFriday morning resulting in a deepening, negatively tilted mid-levelshortwave trough across the southern Appalachians. As a result, asurface low will deepen across the central Carolinas Friday morning.As this occurs, upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints over the Gulf Streamwill advect inland across eastern South Carolina and North Carolinaand perhaps far as southeast Virginia. Cooling temperatures aloftand steepening mid-level lapse rates will aid in destabilizationFriday morning. If some surface heating can occur and allow for azone of greater instability (1000+ J/kg MLCAPE) to develop, a slightrisk may be needed. The most favorable zone at this time extendsfrom northeast South Carolina into eastern North Carolina wherecloudcover/stabilizing rainfall is less likely.There is still some uncertainty regarding the timing and location ofthe mid-level jet max and as a result, the location of the surfacelow. These differences are only 50 to 100 miles, but given how closethe threat is to the coast, this could have a significant impact oninland destabilization and thus the potential for a corridor ofgreater severe risk. This, combined with cloudcover/ongoingconvective concerns mentioned above, preclude higher probabilitiesat this time...Bentley.. 04/09/2025

SPC Apr 9, 2025 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK1210 PM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025Valid 101200Z - 111200Z...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OFTHE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO NORTHERN GEORGIA......SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms capable of producing large hail and damaginggusts will be possible across portions of the Mid/Deep South andTennessee Valley on Thursday....Synopsis...On Thursday, an elongated, strong mid-level jet streak across thecentral Plains will help amplify the trough across the easternCONUS. Very cold mid-level temperatures (-25 to -26C at 500mb) willoverspread the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. Atthe surface, lower/middle 50s F dewpoints will stream northeastwardalong/ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front....Mid/Deep South and Tennessee Valley...Ahead of a southward moving surface front, low-level moistening andsubstantial diurnal heating will result in moderate instability(1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE) from Arkansas into Tennessee, with weakerdestabilization farther northeast into the Lower Ohio River Valley.A broad region of ascent will develop across the warm sector byearly Thursday afternoon within the left exit region of theupper-level jet streak. This should result in scatteredthunderstorms from Arkansas/Missouri to Indiana, eastern Kentuckyand perhaps southern Ohio. The best overlap between the greatestinstability and shear will be from eastern Arkansas eastward tonorthern Georgia where the slight risk is present. Long/straight hodographs will initially support splitting supercellswith a threat for large hail. In addition, these supercells willhave some wind threat given the steep lapse rates and well-mixedboundary layer. This thermodynamic profile will support eventualupscale growth into one or more line segments with a primarydamaging wind threat expected by late afternoon and into theevening...Bentley.. 04/09/2025

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK1153 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025Valid 091700Z - 101200Z...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHPLAINS...Short term model guidance continues to indicate high-based butisolated thunderstorm development across portions of Nebraskathrough the afternoon. The isolated convection will quickly movesoutheastward at 35-45 mph, limiting rainfall while also producinggusty surface winds associated owing to a fairly dry sub-cloudlayer. Therefore, Isolated Dry Thunderstorm highlights wereintroduced into north-central into southeastern portions ofNebraska.Elevated highlights were expanded slightly into western Kansasaccounting for a more broad area of enhanced northwest winds withina dry post-frontal air mass. Similarly in Florida, modest northerlysurface winds nearly parallel to the lower Florida Peninsulacombined with afternoon relative humidity dropping into the 25-35percent range will allow for Elevated fire weather conditions thisafternoon. The driest boundary layer conditions will be concentratedalong the western Florida peninsula through this afternoon where theElevated highlights were added...Williams/Moore.. 04/09/2025.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 PM CDT Tue Apr 08 2025/...Synopsis...A mid-level trough will begin to amplify over the Ohio Valley asupper ridging builds in over the Interior West today. By afternoon,an 80+ kt 500 mb jet streak will overspread a dry boundary layerover the central/northern Plains. Downward momentum transport withinthis dry boundary layer will support 15-20 mph sustainednorthwesterly surface winds amid 20 percent RH. Given dry fuelsacross the central/northern Plains, Elevated highlights have beenintroduced where guidance consensus depicts the aforementioneddry/windy conditions persisting for several hours. Guidanceconsensus also depicts 20-25 mph sustained northwesterly surfacewinds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH across portions of thecentral High Plains, where Critical highlights are in place. Additionally, by afternoon, buoyancy (albeit scant) may supportisolated, fast-moving/high-based thunderstorms over the sameportions of the central Plains that will experience dry/windysurface conditions atop dry fuels. However, thunderstorms should besparse at best over most areas, and it is unclear where a locallyhigher density of lightning flashes may occur, hence no isolated drythunderstorms highlights introduced this outlook....Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Apr 9, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK1115 AM CDT Wed Apr 09 2025Valid 091630Z - 101200Z...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST......SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may occur today and tonight from parts of thenorthern/central Plains into the Midwest and Ohio Valley. Severethunderstorms are not expected....Synopsis and Discussion...Multiple low-amplitude, mid-level shortwave troughs are forecast todevelop east-southeastward today and tonight from parts of thenorthern/central Plains into the Midwest and OH Valley. Rathermeager/shallow low-level moisture will tend to limit thunderstormcoverage and intensity across these regions. Even so, sufficientlarge-scale ascent and weak MUCAPE may still support isolatedconvection capable of producing lightning through the period.Occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with high-basedthunderstorms across parts of SD/NE this afternoon, but organizedsevere thunderstorms are not forecast...Gleason/Lyons.. 04/09/2025

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