What's All This?: September 2008

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SPC MD 909

MD 0909 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA

Mesoscale Discussion 0909NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK0508 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025Areas affected...Parts of central Mississippi into northern/centralAlabamaConcerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 202208Z - 210015ZProbability of Watch Issuance...80 percentSUMMARY...The severe risk, including the potential for a fewtornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail, will continue spreadingeastward across central Mississippi into north/central Alabama intotonight. One or more watches will likely be issued for parts of thearea within an hour or two.DISCUSSION...Widely scattered severe thunderstorms, including acouple discrete supercells and organized clusters, are trackingeastward across northwest/west-central MS -- focused ahead of anortheast/southwest-oriented cold front moving across the region.Over the next several hours, this activity will continue spreadingeast-southeastward along/ahead of the front into central MS andeventually northern/central AL. Given an increasingly largecomponent of front-parallel deep-layer shear with time, there may bea gradual tendency for storms to grow upscale into a semi-continuousline. Nevertheless, around 50 kt of effective shear and upwards of200 m2/s2 effective SRH (beneath a focused low-level jet) willpromote embedded supercells -- given strong pre-convectiveinstability. A few tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail willall be possible. One or more watches will likely be issued for partsof the area within an hour or two...Weinman/Gleason.. 05/20/2025...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LAT...LON   32989086 33548972 34158800 34238722 34188656 34118610            33848577 33488565 33108570 32768588 32488637 32258714            32058824 31728978 31639025 31619080 31719124 32239134            32709121 32989086 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPHMOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPHMOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

SPC MD 912

MD 0912 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 305... FOR FAR NORTHERN ALABAMA

Mesoscale Discussion 0912NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK0547 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025Areas affected...Far Northern AlabamaConcerning...Tornado Watch 305...Valid 202247Z - 210045ZThe severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 305 continues.SUMMARY...A threat for tornadoes, very large hail and wind damagewill continue over the next couple of hours across far northernAlabama.DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Huntsville,shows two intense supercells across far northern Alabama. Thesestorms are located near an axis of moderate instability, where theRAP has MLCAPE around 2500 J/kg. The latest WSR-88D VWP in thevicinity of the storms has 0-6 km shear of 45 to 50 knots, 0-3 kmstorm-relative helicity near 200 m2/s2, and a curved hodograph. Thisenvironment will continue to support intense supercell development.A tornado will be possible over the next hour, especially as thesetwo supercells interact with each other. The supercells could alsoproduce very large hail and wind damage...Broyles.. 05/20/2025...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...LAT...LON   35008647 34988716 34978749 34938774 34808787 34678788            34548771 34488724 34488683 34488623 34688598 34888601            34998620 35008647 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPHMOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPHMOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

SPC MD 911

MD 0911 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 303... FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI

Mesoscale Discussion 0911NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK0538 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025Areas affected...Parts of northern MississippiConcerning...Tornado Watch 303...Valid 202238Z - 210015ZThe severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 303 continues.SUMMARY...Several ongoing severe storms are moving into anincreasingly favorable environment for tornadoes across northernMississippi.DISCUSSION...A couple semi-discrete supercells are tracking eastwardacross parts of northwest/west-central MS. Ahead of these storms, a35-kt low-level jet (sampled by area VWPs) is contributing to amplelow-level clockwise hodograph curvature with around 200 m2/s2effective SRH. Given warm/moist surface-based inflow and thisenhanced streamwise vorticity, the ongoing storms may intensify asthey continue eastward -- with an increasing tornado risk. Largehail and locally damaging winds will also be a concern...Weinman.. 05/20/2025...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LAT...LON   33249113 34288996 34538945 34538915 34428884 34208873            33278969 33019032 33029069 33099102 33249113 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPHMOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPHMOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

SPC MD 913

MD 0913 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 304... FOR PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND WEST-CENTRAL INDIANA

Mesoscale Discussion 0913NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK0551 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025Areas affected...Parts of east-central Illinois and west-centralIndianaConcerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 304...Valid 202251Z - 202345ZThe severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 304continues.SUMMARY...The tornado threat is likely peaking now (as of 2245Z),and should lessen with northeastward extent over the next hour.DISCUSSION...A supercell with a history of producing tornadoes (anda couple upstream cells) are tracking eastward toward the cool sideof a warm front, though they are still in a very localized corridorof surface-based instability and 150-200 m2/s2 effective SRH.Therefore, the tornado threat is likely peaking now with thisactivity, before it moves to the cool/stable side of the boundary...Weinman.. 05/20/2025...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...ATTN...WFO...IND...LOT...ILX...LAT...LON   40068795 40368811 40608783 40688744 40558723 39998677            39708696 39718730 40068795 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPHMOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPHMOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

SPC Tornado Watch 304 Status Reports

WW 0304 Status Updates

STATUS REPORT ON WW 304SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S MTO TO15 SSW CMI TO 30 NW LAF.FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0913..WEINMAN..05/20/25ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILX...LOT...IND...STATUS REPORT FOR WT 304 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC023-029-035-041-045-183-210040-IL .    ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARECLARK                COLES               CUMBERLAND          DOUGLAS              EDGAR               VERMILION           INC045-107-121-157-165-167-171-210040-IN .    INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED AREFOUNTAIN             MONTGOMERY          PARKE               TIPPECANOE           VERMILLION          VIGO                WARREN               THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASEREFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIALINFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONESCLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

SPC Tornado Watch 304

WW 304 TORNADO IL IN 201845Z - 210100Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDTornado Watch Number 304NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK145 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a* Tornado Watch for portions of   Central Illinois  West Central Indiana* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until  800 PM CDT.* Primary threats include...  A few tornadoes possible  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events    to 2 inches in diameter possible  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possibleSUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms will tracknortheastward across the watch area.  Large hail and a few tornadoesappear to be the main threats.The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute mileseast and west of a line from 55 miles north northeast of Peoria ILto 15 miles south southeast of Mattoon IL. For a complete depictionof the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNSWOU4).PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable fortornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watcharea. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout forthreatening weather conditions and listen for later statementsand possible warnings.&&OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 302...WW 303...AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hailsurface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface windgusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Meanstorm motion vector 24030....Hart

SPC Tornado Watch 303 Status Reports

WW 0303 Status Updates

STATUS REPORT ON WW 303SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE CBM TO25 N GWO TO 35 SE MKL TO 35 SSW CKV...BROYLES..05/20/25ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...MEG...PAH...STATUS REPORT FOR WT 303 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MSC003-013-017-057-071-081-095-115-117-139-141-145-161-210040-MS .    MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED AREALCORN               CALHOUN             CHICKASAW           ITAWAMBA             LAFAYETTE           LEE                 MONROE               PONTOTOC            PRENTISS            TIPPAH               TISHOMINGO          UNION               YALOBUSHA            TNC039-071-109-210040-TN .    TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED AREDECATUR              HARDIN              MCNAIRY             THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASEREFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIALINFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONESCLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

SPC Tornado Watch 303

WW 303 TORNADO AR IL KY MO MS TN 201810Z - 210100Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDTornado Watch Number 303NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK110 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a* Tornado Watch for portions of   Eastern Arkansas  Southern Illinois  Western Kentucky  Southeast Missouri  Northern Mississippi  West Tennessee* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 110 PM until  800 PM CDT.* Primary threats include...  A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5    inches in diameter likely  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likelySUMMARY...Thunderstorms will intensify across the watch area thisafternoon in a very moist and unstable air mass.  A few supercellsare expected, capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a fewtornadoes.The tornado watch area is approximately along and 110 statute mileseast and west of a line from 60 miles east northeast of Poplar BluffMO to 35 miles south of Greenville MS. For a complete depiction ofthe watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNSWOU3).PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable fortornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watcharea. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout forthreatening weather conditions and listen for later statementsand possible warnings.&&OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 302...AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hailsurface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface windgusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Meanstorm motion vector 24030....Hart

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 306 Status Reports

WW 0306 Status Updates

STATUS REPORT ON WW 306SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE LFKTO 35 SW MLU TO 15 E GLH...WEINMAN..05/20/25ATTN...WFO...SHV...JAN...STATUS REPORT FOR WS 306 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC021-043-059-067-069-073-083-085-123-127-210040-LA .    LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARECALDWELL             GRANT               LA SALLE            MOREHOUSE            NATCHITOCHES        OUACHITA            RICHLAND             SABINE              WEST CARROLL        WINN                 THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASEREFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIALINFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONESCLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 306

WW 306 SEVERE TSTM AR LA 202010Z - 210200Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSevere Thunderstorm Watch Number 306NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK310 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of   South Central Arkansas  Northern Louisiana* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 310 PM until  900 PM CDT.* Primary threats include...  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5    inches in diameter possible  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible  A tornado or two possibleSUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to intensify along a coldfront and track across northern Louisiana through the early evening. Large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two arepossible.The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles south southwestof Natchitoches LA to 60 miles north northeast of Monroe LA. For acomplete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outlineupdate (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions arefavorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threateningweather conditions and listen for later statements and possiblewarnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do producetornadoes.&&OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 302...WW 303...WW304...WW 305...AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. Afew cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector27030....Hart

SPC Tornado Watch 305 Status Reports

WW 0305 Status Updates

STATUS REPORT ON WW 305SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE TUPTO 50 SSW CKV TO 25 SSW BWG TO 35 WSW SDF...BROYLES..05/20/25ATTN...WFO...HUN...FFC...PAH...LMK...OHX...MRX...STATUS REPORT FOR WT 305 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-043-049-059-071-077-079-083-089-095-103-210040-AL .    ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARECOLBERT              CULLMAN             DEKALB              FRANKLIN             JACKSON             LAUDERDALE          LAWRENCE             LIMESTONE           MADISON             MARSHALL             MORGAN              KYC001-003-009-045-053-057-061-085-087-093-099-123-169-171-207-217-227-210040-KY .    KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED AREADAIR                ALLEN               BARREN              CASEY                CLINTON             CUMBERLAND          EDMONSON             GRAYSON             GREEN               HARDIN               HART                LARUE               METCALFE             MONROE              RUSSELL             TAYLOR               WARREN

SPC Tornado Watch 305

WW 305 TORNADO AL GA IL IN KY TN 201935Z - 210300Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDTornado Watch Number 305NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK235 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a* Tornado Watch for portions of   Northern Alabama  Northwest Georgia  Southeast Illinois  Southwest Indiana  Central Kentucky  Middle Tennessee* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until  1000 PM CDT.* Primary threats include...  A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events    to 2.5 inches in diameter possible  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likelySUMMARY...Thunderstorms will spread quickly eastward across thewatch area through the afternoon and early evening hours.  Damagingwinds, large hail, and a few tornadoes are expected.The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute mileseast and west of a line from 50 miles north of Bowling Green KY to35 miles south of Huntsville AL. For a complete depiction of thewatch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable fortornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watcharea. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout forthreatening weather conditions and listen for later statementsand possible warnings.&&OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 302...WW 303...WW 304...AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hailsurface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface windgusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Meanstorm motion vector 25030....Hart

SPC Tornado Watch 308 Status Reports

WW 0308 Status Updates

STATUS REPORT ON WW 308THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA...BROYLES..05/20/25ATTN...WFO...FFC...JKL...MRX...STATUS REPORT FOR WT 308 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC015-047-055-057-083-085-111-115-117-123-129-187-213-227-291-295-313-210040-GA .    GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED AREBARTOW               CATOOSA             CHATTOOGA           CHEROKEE             DADE                DAWSON              FANNIN               FLOYD               FORSYTH             GILMER               GORDON              LUMPKIN             MURRAY               PICKENS             UNION               WALKER               WHITFIELD           KYC013-025-051-095-109-119-121-125-131-133-147-189-193-199-203-231-235-210040-KY .    KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED AREBELL                 BREATHITT           CLAY                HARLAN               JACKSON             KNOTT               KNOX                 LAUREL              LESLIE              LETCHER              MCCREARY            OWSLEY              PERRY                PULASKI             ROCKCASTLE          WAYNE                WHITLEY

SPC Tornado Watch 308

WW 308 TORNADO GA KY NC TN VA 202325Z - 210600Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDTornado Watch Number 308NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK725 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a* Tornado Watch for portions of   Northern Georgia  Eastern Kentucky  Far Southwest North Carolina  Eastern Tennessee  Far Southwest Virginia* Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 725 PM  until 200 AM EDT.* Primary threats include...  A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5    inches in diameter possibleSUMMARY...A mix of supercell thunderstorms and clusters will spreadgenerally eastward this evening into the early overnight hours. Afew tornadoes may occur with this activity, and a strong tornado andisolated very large hail will also be possible with any sustainedsupercell. Otherwise, an increasing threat for scattered to numerousdamaging winds appears likely as thunderstorms attempt to organizeinto a line later this evening. Peak gusts may reach up to 60-70mph.The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute mileseast and west of a line from 35 miles north northeast of London KYto 20 miles southeast of Rome GA. For a complete depiction of thewatch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable fortornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watcharea. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout forthreatening weather conditions and listen for later statementsand possible warnings.&&OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 303...WW 304...WW305...WW 306...WW 307...AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hailsurface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface windgusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Meanstorm motion vector 26030....Gleason

SPC Tornado Watch 307 Status Reports

WW 0307 Status Updates

STATUS FOR WATCH 0307 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET

SPC Tornado Watch 307

WW 307 TORNADO LA MS 202250Z - 210500Z

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDTornado Watch Number 307NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK550 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a* Tornado Watch for portions of   Northeast Louisiana  Central Mississippi* Effective this Tuesday afternoon from 550 PM until Midnight  CDT.* Primary threats include...  A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5    inches in diameter possible  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possibleSUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms should continue to pose a threatmainly for a few tornadoes and scattered large to very large hail asthey move east-southeastward this evening. A strong tornado remainspossible. With time, a line of thunderstorms may develop and pose anincreasing threat for severe/damaging winds.The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute milesnorth and south of a line from 45 miles north of Natchez MS to 35miles south of Columbus MS. For a complete depiction of the watchsee the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable fortornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watcharea. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout forthreatening weather conditions and listen for later statementsand possible warnings.&&OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 303...WW 304...WW305...WW 306...AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hailsurface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface windgusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Meanstorm motion vector 28030....Gleason

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK0453 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025Valid 221200Z - 281200ZAn upper-level ridge is expected to amplify as it translateseastward into the Great Plains through the end of the week (Day5/Saturday), bringing above normal temperatures and dry conditionsto much of the Southwest. A subtle, upper-level short wave movinginto northern California and northern Great Basin will promotestronger winds across the California Central Valley Day 3/Thursday.Overlap of increased winds and very dry conditions are expected, butfuels capable of fire spread will be limited to dry/cured fine fuelswith higher live fuel moisture subduing significant wildfire spread.Nonetheless, Elevated fire weather conditions are likely forportions of the Central Valley for Day 3/Thursday. A more amplified, but still progressive upper-level trough entersCalifornia Day 4/Friday, moving into the Intermountain West by Day5/Saturday. This will introduce a more widespread fire weatherthreat across the Southwest in terms of increased southwest windscoupled with low relative humidity and dry fuels. A 40 percentCritical probability area has been introduced to highlight the day4/Friday threat. Muted mid-level flow and a very dry boundary layerbringing breezy and dry conditions remains over New Mexico for Day5/Saturday supporting at least Elevated fire weather conditions forthe area.Pronounced ridging across the western U.S. will support a light windregime with above normal temperatures beginning early next week Day6/Sunday. Ensemble guidance shows an impinging upper-level troughinto the Pacific Northwest Day 6-7/Sunday Monday. The trough alongwith some mid-level moisture could promote thunderstorm developmentacross portions of the northern Great Basin and Northern Rockies Day7-8/Monday-Tuesday although fuel receptiveness to ignition should belimited...Williams.. 05/20/2025...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC Tornado Watch 302 Status Reports

WW 0302 Status Updates

STATUS REPORT ON WW 302SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSW TRITO 55 W BLF TO 35 SE HTS TO 5 ENE HTS.WW 302 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 210000Z...SQUITIERI..05/20/25ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...RLX...MRX...OHX...STATUS REPORT FOR WT 302 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC163-210000-TN .    TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARESULLIVAN             VAC027-051-167-191-520-210000-VA .    VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED AREBUCHANAN             DICKENSON           RUSSELL             WASHINGTON           VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED AREBRISTOL              WVC005-043-047-059-109-210000-

SPC May 20, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK0252 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025Valid 202000Z - 211200Z...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OFTHE MID MS VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS......SUMMARY...Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected today throughthis evening, centered on the Mid/Deep South, Tennessee/Lower OhioValleys, and Cumberland Plateau. Tornadoes, some of which could bestrong, along with scattered to widespread damaging winds, and largeto isolated significant severe hail will be possible....20Z Update...Much of the previous forecast remains on track. Earlier stormsacross the TN Valley have matured into a QLCS, which is nowapproaching the central Appalachians. These storms should progresstoward the eastern extent of a buoyant warm sector with a continuedrisk of damaging gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Stormspoised to cross the MS River over the central MS Valley, and morediscrete storms farther east over western TN/northern MS, shouldintensify further as they move eastward amid a strongly sheared andunstable airmass. The more intense, discrete storms will be capableof large to very large hail and at least isolated tornadoes. Themore dominant supercells that move into northeast MS, middle TN, andsouthern KY, where surface is flow is relatively more backed, willhave the best chance at producing a strong tornado. Lastly, stormsshould continue to intensify ahead of a surface low over central ILand immediate surrounding areas. Shear/buoyancy over this regionfavors supercell structures with a continued large hail/tornadorisk...Squitieri.. 05/20/2025.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025/...KY/TN...Thunderstorms are ongoing across central KY/middle TN. These stormswill progress eastward through the afternoon into a moist andincreasingly unstable air mass over eastern KY/TN and eventuallyinto western WV/VA. Most model guidance suggests that storms willintensify through the day, with an increasing risk of damaging windgusts and a few tornadoes. Refer to MCD #902 for further details....AR into the TN Valley this afternoon/evening...In the wake of the aforementioned convection, rapid heating isoccurring across eastern AR/west TN/northern MS. Surface dewpointsin the upper 60s to 70s and steep mid level lapse rates will yieldafternoon MLCAPE values around 3000 J/kg and only a weak cap. Thiswill lead to the development of multiple clusters of intensethunderstorms (including supercells) that will track eastwardthrough the afternoon and evening hours. The initial storms willpose a risk of very large hail and a few tornadoes. As the activityprogresses eastward, the risk of damaging winds will increase with apersistent risk of tornadoes. Strong tornadoes will be possible. Storms are expected to get as far east as northwest GA tonightbefore slowly weakening....MO/IL...Satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough andassociated surface low over IA/MO. Ahead of this feature, southerlylow-level winds have transported mid 60s dewpoints into central IL,where strong heating is now occurring. This will result in moderateCAPE across the region and encourage rapid thunderstorm developmentover northeast and east-central MO by mid-afternoon. Steep lapserates aloft and favorable deep-layer shear will support supercellstructures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a fewtornadoes. Storms will track across IL and into central IN thisevening.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK0249 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025Valid 211200Z - 221200Z...NO CRITICAL AREAS...A departing mid-level jet should support localized downslopeenhancement of winds and drying along the Colorado Front RangeWednesday. However, fuels are not particularly receptive to firespread with ongoing green up along the Front Range, mitigatingoverall fire weather threat. Otherwise, no widespread fire weatherconcerns across the CONUS...Williams.. 05/20/2025.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Tue May 20 2025/...Synopsis...A belt of enhanced westerly midlevel flow will be in place acrossthe central Rockies on Wednesday. This will promote locallydry/breezy conditions along the CO Front Range during the afternoon.While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, theoverall risk appears too localized for highlights. Elsewhere acrossthe CONUS, a limited overlap of warm, dry, and windy conditionsshould limit fire-weather concerns....Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

SPC May 20, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK0231 PM CDT Tue May 20 2025Valid 221200Z - 231200Z...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWESTOKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS......SUMMARY...A few severe storms are possible across portions of Northwest Texasinto southwest Oklahoma on Thursday....Southwest Oklahoma into Northwest Texas...Modest moisture return is possible ahead of a quasi-stationaryboundary near the Red River. Strong heating south of the boundarywill support a well-mixed boundary layer with perhaps 2000-2500 J/kgMLCAPE in some areas. Moisture will likely be a bit shallow anddewpoints will tend to mix int the mid/upper 50s F, though guidancestill suggests 60s F near the boundary. Moderate northwest flowaloft will promote 40-50 kts of effective shear. A few organizedstorms appear possible with an attendant risk for large hail andsevere winds....Carolinas...Strong mid-level flow will persist across the region. However, thesurface low will be well offshore and low-level forcing will benebulous at best. It is unclear how many storms will form during theafternoon and, with dewpoints generally falling into the 50s F,there intensity is also questionable. Confidence is too low forunconditional severe probabilities, but strong wind gusts are notcompletely out of the question...Wendt.. 05/20/2025

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